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Publicaciones científicas

  • The use of scenarios and models to evaluate the future of nature valuesand ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests

    Science and society are increasingly interested in predicting the effects of global change and socio-economic development on natural systems, to ensure maintenance of both ecosystems and human well-being. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has identified the combination of ecological modelling and scenario forecasting as key to improving our understanding of those effects, by evaluating the relationships and feedbacks between direct and indirect drivers of change, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Using as case study the forests of the Mediterranean basin (complex socio-ecological systems of high social and conservation value), we reviewed the literature to assess (1) what are the modelling approaches most commonly used to predict the condition and trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services under future scenarios of global change, (2) what are the drivers of change considered in future scenarios and at what scales, and (3) what are the nature and ecosystem service indicators most commonly evaluated. Our review shows that forecasting studies make relatively little use of modelling approaches accounting for actual ecological processes and feedbacks between different socio-ecological sectors; predictions are generally made on the basis of a single (mainly climate) or a few drivers of change. In general, there is a bias in the set of nature and ecosystem service indicators assessed. In particular, cultural services and human well-being are greatly underrepresented in the literature. We argue that these shortfalls hamper our capacity to make the best use of predictive tools to inform decision-making in the context of global change.

  • Predicting the severity of defoliation due to the pine processionary moth using remote sensing and UAV imagery

    Scientific poster. Vienna, 8-13 April 2018. European Geosciences Union General Assembly.

  • Assessing Pine Processionary Moth Defoliation Using Unmanned Aerial Systems

    Pine processionary moth (PPM) is one of the most destructive insect defoliators in the Mediterranean for many conifers, causing losses of growth, vitality and eventually the death of trees during outbreaks. There is a growing need for cost-effective monitoring of the temporal and spatial impacts of PPM in forest ecology to better assess outbreak spread patterns and provide guidance on the development of measures targeting the negative impacts of the species on forests, industry and human health. Remote sensing technology mounted on unmanned aerial systems (UASs) with high-resolution image processing has been proposed to assess insect outbreak impacts at local and forest stand levels. Here, we used UAS-acquired RGB imagery in two pine sites to quantify defoliation at the tree-level and to verify the accuracy of the estimates. Our results allowed the identification of healthy, infested and completely defoliated trees and suggested that pine defoliation estimates using UASs are robust and allow high-accuracy (79%) field-based infestation indexes to be derived that are comparable to those used by forest technicians. When compared to current field-based methods, our approach provides PPM impact assessments with an efficient data acquisition method in terms of time and staff, allowing the quantitative estimation of defoliation at tree-level scale. Furthermore, our method could be expanded to a number of situations and scaled up in combination with satellite remote sensing imagery or citizen science approaches.